SOTG MLB Power Rankings 3

by: Matthew de Marte – September 20th, 2018

Welcome back to the third edition of the SOTG Power Rankings. If you need to familiarize yourself with the algorithm and objectives of this ranking system and how they were calculated please click HERE. This will be the final rankings posted before the end of the season in which we will do a final power rankings as part of our postseason preview. The last time these rankings were released on August 8th, the top 5 in order was the Houston Astros, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, and the Chicago Cubs. This edition of the SOTG rankings shows my algorithm has faith in some small market franchises, and accurately predicted the demise of some contenders. Let’s take a look!

Rank Team wRD W-L wRD W% Home wRD Away wRD W-L Win % Luck
1 (1) HOU 103-49 0.678 39 177 95-57 0.625 -8
2 (2) BOS 97-55 0.638 84 76 103-49 0.678 6
3 (3) LAD 94-59 0.614 38 89 85-68 0.556 -9
4 (9) OAK 91-61 0.599 40 63 91-61 0.599 0
5 (4) NYY 88-63 0.583 30 53 93-58 0.616 5
6 (5) CHC 88-64 0.579 8 74 89-63 0.586 1
7 (10) ATL 85-67 0.559 -13 64 84-68 0.553 -1
8 (6) CLE 84-67 0.556 21 29 85-66 0.563 1
9 (8) MIL 85-68 0.556 39 10 87-66 0.569 2
10 (17) TB 83-68 0.550 70 -36 85-66 0.563 2
11 (7) ARI 84-69 0.549 16 21 79-74 0.516 -5
12 (16) STL 83-70 0.542 -35 67 84-69 0.549 1
13 (11) WSH 80-72 0.526 -37 43 77-75 0.507 -3
14 (13) LAA 80-72 0.526 -11 20 75-77 0.493 -5
15 (14) PIT 78-73 0.517 -5 0 77-74 0.51 -1
16 (18) COL 77-75 0.507 -5 -16 82-70 0.539 5
17 (20) SEA 76-76 0.500 -40 9 84-68 0.553 8
18 (15) SF 75-78 0.490 21 -70 72-81 0.471 -3
19 (12) PHI 74-77 0.490 -14 -32 78-73 0.517 4
20 (26) NYM 73-79 0.480 -65 14 70-82 0.461 -3
21 (21) CIN 69-84 0.451 -31 -66 65-88 0.425 -4
22 (19) TEX 68-84 0.447 -61 -34 64-88 0.421 -4
23 (23) MIN 65-87 0.428 -40 -87 71-81 0.467 6
24 (24) SD 65-88 0.425 -86 -43 61-92 0.399 -4
25 (22) TOR 64-88 0.421 -63 -77 69-83 0.454 -5
26 (25) MIA 59-92 0.391 -36 -144 59-92 0.391 0
27 (27) DET 59-93 0.388 -71 -108 61-91 0.401 2
28 (29) CWS 53-98 0.351 -132 -95 59-92 0.391 6
29 (30) KC 53-99 0.349 -122 -113 52-100 0.342 -1
30 (28) BAL 47-105 0.309 -112 -177 44-108 0.289 -3

The Astros are hanging on to the top spot once again as it appears they will be baseballs top team entering October. wRD Win % is not the only metric that agrees that the Astros are the best team in baseball, MLB.com’s Mike Petriello recently wrote a fantastic article on why the Astros are once again baseball’s best team. So, Red Sox fans, I apologize, but maybe you are not the favorite heading into October. wRD Win % is buying on the Oakland A’s as they rank 4th as they have jumped five spots, and are potentially, the favorite for the Wild Card game when factoring in SOS, run differential and home and road splits. Worth noting is wRD Win % buys on the Tampa Bay Rays as they slip into the top ten and have made the biggest jump in these rankings. Now they have been playing really well, but note the Seattle Mariners who at times this year were on pace to win 100 games never cracked the top 15. Just because you are winning does not necessarily mean this rankings system thinks your team is a contending team, but it is nice to see the Rays may be in position next season to make a playoff push.

Three teams who were fighting for playoff spots all season, the Rockies, Mariners, and Phillies are three teams wRD Win % was never very high on. This could be a testament to this power rankings predictive ability as all three teams rank in the bottom half of baseball in this power rankings, but have all been in the playoff picture. In fact, going into this week the Rockies were leading the NL West before getting swept by the Dodgers. Speaking of the Dodgers it is not outrageous to say that they are the best team in the NL heading into October, wRD Win % certainly thinks they are the favorite to win the NL Pennant.

Since the season is ending in a week and a half, I choose not to include graphs in this edition looking into wRD Win % predictive powers as we have the past two power rankings. We will include this in the 2018 full season power rankings set to release shortly before postseason play begins. Thank you for reading, and please reach out to studentsofbaseball@gmail.com if you have any questions!

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