by: Matthew de Marte, Matt Carlin, and Jeff Adams – November 9th, 2018
Major League Baseball’s 2018 Free Agent class has been looked at for years as potentially the best in baseball history. Although, age, injuries, and decreased performance have taken away some of the luster surrounding this crop of free agents, there are still a plethora of quality players free to sign with whomever they choose (So long as they are offered a contract!). If you have already read our pieces regarding Bryce Harper and Manny Machado’s free agency, you already understand the SOTG analytics team created their own free agent projections system. Using data from the 2014-2018 free agent classes, we used variables pertaining to position, production, time spent on the field, among others to predict a player’s value on the open market. In this piece, SOTG will look at the top 50 free agents (according to MLB Trade Rumors), with their projected contracts in terms of years and money. The lower and upper fit (Years and AAV) based on each prediction’s confidence interval are also shown with each player’s projections. For each player, Jeff, Matt, and I will give our opinions whether we think the contract projection is fair, under or overvalued, and predict which team the player will sign with. Note these contracts are projected from per mathematical computation based on years past in free agency, so not every possible variable is taken into account in these projections, but as a team we were happy with how they came out! Without further-ado, let’s take a look at the top 50 free agents (Not including Yusei Kikuchi, whom the Seibu Lions of the NPB is expected to post him) and what SOTG has them projected to make!
(1) Bryce Harper (RF) – 10 Years $360 Million
Lower Fit |
Mean |
Upper Fit |
8.976385859 |
9.7033471 |
10.4303084 |
33204967 |
35967657 |
38730347 |
|
Matthew |
Matt |
Jeff |
Years |
Equal |
Over |
Under |
AAV |
Under |
Under |
Under |
Team |
Yankees |
Phillies |
Nationals |
(2) Manny Machado (SS) – 9 Years $301 Million
Lower Fit |
Mean |
Upper Fit |
8.363271708 |
9.0909404 |
9.8186090 |
30703624 |
33468940 |
36234256 |
|
Matthew |
Matt |
Jeff |
Years |
Over |
Under |
Under |
AAV |
Under |
Under |
Under |
Team |
Phillies |
Braves |
Phillies |
(3) Patrick Corbin (SP) – 6 Years $138.8 Million
Lower Fit |
Mean |
Upper Fit |
5.635992886 |
6.1032535 |
6.5705141 |
21353388 |
23130092 |
24906796 |
|
Matthew |
Matt |
Jeff |
Years |
Under |
Under |
Under |
AAV |
Under |
Equal |
Equal |
Team |
Yankees |
Yankees |
Nationals |
(4) Dallas Keuchel (SP) – 5 Years $ 114.4 Million
Lower Fit |
Mean |
Upper Fit |
4.692996534 |
5.0591168 |
5.4252371 |
21480658 |
22872233 |
24263809 |
|
Matthew |
Matt |
Jeff |
Years |
Under |
Equal |
Equal |
AAV |
Under |
Under |
Under |
Team |
Angels |
Braves |
Angels |
(5) Craig Kimbrel (RP) – 5 Years $78.6 Million
Lower Fit |
Mean |
Upper Fit |
4.744428036 |
5.3600363 |
5.9756446 |
13371127 |
15710472 |
18049818 |
|
Matthew |
Matt |
Jeff |
Years |
Equal |
Equal |
Equal |
AAV |
Equal |
Equal |
Equal |
Team |
Braves |
Red Sox |
Braves |
(6) Yasmani Grandal (C) – 5 Years $76.5 Million
Lower Fit |
Mean |
Upper Fit |
4.299959211 |
4.6276595 |
4.9553598 |
14057673 |
15304002 |
16550331 |
|
Matthew |
Matt |
Jeff |
Years |
Under |
Under |
Equal |
AAV |
Equal |
Equal |
Under |
Team |
Red Sox |
Phillies |
Phillies |
(7) Nathan Eovaldi (SP) – 4 Years $52.7 Million
Lower Fit |
Mean |
Upper Fit |
3.702336173 |
3.9746355 |
4.2469349 |
12147381 |
13182626 |
14217871 |
|
Matthew |
Matt |
Jeff |
Years |
Equal |
Equal |
Equal |
AAV |
Equal |
Equal |
Over |
Team |
Red Sox |
Red Sox |
Red Sox |
(8) A.J. Pollock (CF) – 4 Years $56.4 Million
Lower Fit |
Mean |
Upper Fit |
3.429058902 |
3.9138214 |
4.3985839 |
12259016 |
14101828 |
15944640 |
|
Matthew |
Matt |
Jeff |
Years |
Equal |
Over |
Equal |
AAV |
Equal |
Equal |
Equal |
Team |
White Sox |
Dbacks |
Dbacks |
(9) J.A. Happ (SP) – 3 Years $42.2 Million
Lower Fit |
Mean |
Upper Fit |
2.300808513 |
2.5393763 |
2.7779441 |
13151453 |
14058902 |
14966352 |
|
Matthew |
Matt |
Jeff |
Years |
Equal |
Equal |
Equal |
AAV |
Equal |
Equal |
Equal |
Team |
Angels |
Yankees |
Yankees |
(10) Michael Brantley (OF) – 4 Years $58.7 Million
Lower Fit |
Mean |
Upper Fit |
3.672566557 |
4.0162662 |
4.3599659 |
13365573 |
14671372 |
15977170 |
|
Matthew |
Matt |
Jeff |
Years |
Under |
Under |
Equal |
AAV |
Equal |
Equal |
Equal |
Team |
Giants |
Indians |
Indians |
(11) Andrew McCutchen (LF) – 3 Years $50.3 Million
Lower Fit |
Mean |
Upper Fit |
2.697041072 |
3.2551476 |
3.8132541 |
14651813 |
16774113 |
18896412 |
|
Matthew |
Matt |
Jeff |
Years |
Equal |
Equal |
Equal |
AAV |
Under |
Under |
Under |
Team |
Phillies |
Mariners |
Mariners |
(12) Josh Donaldson (3B) – 4 Years $80.5 Million
Lower Fit |
Mean |
Upper Fit |
3.401985811 |
4.1366304 |
4.8712749 |
17337868 |
20131560 |
22925251 |
|
Matthew |
Matt |
Jeff |
Years |
Under |
Equal |
Equal |
AAV |
Equal |
Under |
Equal |
Team |
Cardinals |
Cardinals |
Cardinals |
(13) Charlie Morton (SP) – 4 Years $65.1 Million
Lower Fit |
Mean |
Upper Fit |
3.653989908 |
3.8990439 |
4.1440979 |
15334543 |
16266088 |
17197633 |
|
Matthew |
Matt |
Jeff |
Years |
Under |
Under |
Under |
AAV |
Over |
Over |
Equal |
Team |
Cubs |
Astros |
Astros |
(14) Wilson Ramos (C) – 4 Years $46.3 Million
Lower Fit |
Mean |
Upper Fit |
3.628922805 |
3.8869746 |
4.1450264 |
10595953 |
11574950 |
12553946 |
|
Matthew |
Matt |
Jeff |
Years |
Under |
Equal |
Equal |
AAV |
Equal |
Over |
Equal |
Team |
Nationals |
Nationals |
Nationals |
(15) Marwin Gonzalez (UTIL) – 4 Years $50.9 Million
Lower Fit |
Mean |
Upper Fit |
3.597727604 |
3.9816552 |
4.3655829 |
11264902 |
12729258 |
14193615 |
|
Matthew |
Matt |
Jeff |
Years |
Equal |
Equal |
Equal |
AAV |
Equal |
Equal |
Equal |
Team |
Astros |
Astros |
Astros |
(16) Jeurys Familia (RP) – 4 Years $52.5 Million
Lower Fit |
Mean |
Upper Fit |
3.508059731 |
3.9989498 |
4.4898399 |
11256767 |
13122246 |
14987725 |
|
Matthew |
Matt |
Jeff |
Years |
Under |
Under |
Under |
AAV |
Under |
Under |
Under |
Team |
Phillies |
Astros |
Phillies |
(17) Zach Britton (RP) – 3 Years $32.6 Million
Lower Fit |
Mean |
Upper Fit |
2.773072685 |
3.2920997 |
3.8111267 |
8900831 |
10873249 |
12845668 |
|
Matthew |
Matt |
Jeff |
Years |
Equal |
Equal |
Equal |
AAV |
Over |
Over |
Equal |
Team |
Yankees |
Yankees |
Yankees |
(18) David Robertson (RP) – 4 Years $49.2 Million
Lower Fit |
Mean |
Upper Fit |
3.638126511 |
4.0329037 |
4.4276809 |
10812545 |
12311212 |
13809880 |
|
Matthew |
Matt |
Jeff |
Years |
Under |
Under |
Under |
AAV |
Equal |
Equal |
Under |
Team |
Yankees |
A’s |
Yankees |
(19) Hyun-Jin Ryu (SP) – 4 Years $51.8 Million
Lower Fit |
Mean |
Upper Fit |
3.551566286 |
3.8383412 |
4.1251161 |
11856836 |
12947687 |
14038537 |
|
Matthew |
Matt |
Jeff |
Years |
Under |
Equal |
Under |
AAV |
Over |
Equal |
Equal |
Team |
Dodgers |
Dodgers |
Dodgers |
(20) Adam Ottavino (RP) – 5 Years $59.3 Million
Lower Fit |
Mean |
Upper Fit |
4.095781462 |
4.5557648 |
5.0157482 |
10115949 |
11865695 |
13615441 |
|
Matthew |
Matt |
Jeff |
Years |
Under |
Under |
Under |
AAV |
Over |
Over |
Equal |
Team |
Dodgers |
Cardinals |
Cubs |
(21) Nelson Cruz (DH) – 2 Years $24.4 Million
Lower Fit |
Mean |
Upper Fit |
1.472623905 |
1.9341506 |
2.3956772 |
10449591 |
12204111 |
13958631 |
|
Matthew |
Matt |
Jeff |
Years |
Equal |
Equal |
Equal |
AAV |
Over |
Equal |
Over |
Team |
Astros |
Rays |
Rays |
(22) Jed Lowrie (2B) – 3 Years $37.4 Million
Lower Fit |
Mean |
Upper Fit |
3.115799559 |
3.4801001 |
3.8444006 |
11068531 |
12450036 |
13831541 |
|
Matthew |
Matt |
Jeff |
Years |
Equal |
Equal |
Equal |
AAV |
Equal |
Equal |
Equal |
Team |
A’s |
A’s |
A’s |
(23) Andrew Miller (RP) – 3 Years $33 Million
Lower Fit |
Mean |
Upper Fit |
2.403080081 |
3.0176197 |
3.6321593 |
8675276 |
11013294 |
13351312 |
|
Matthew |
Matt |
Jeff |
Years |
Equal |
Equal |
Equal |
AAV |
Equal |
Equal |
Equal |
Team |
Yankees |
Red Sox |
Cardinals |
(24) Joe Kelly (RP) – 3 Years $21.1 Million
Lower Fit |
Mean |
Upper Fit |
2.664624264 |
2.8980095 |
3.1313948 |
6154299 |
7041701 |
7929103 |
|
Matthew |
Matt |
Jeff |
Years |
Equal |
Equal |
Equal |
AAV |
Equal |
Equal |
Equal |
Team |
Red Sox |
Dodgers |
Red Sox |
(25) Kelvin Herrera (RP) – 2 Years $14.5 Million
Lower Fit |
Mean |
Upper Fit |
1.805375477 |
2.2592456 |
2.7131158 |
5516890 |
7241993 |
8967096 |
|
Matthew |
Matt |
Jeff |
Years |
Equal |
Equal |
Equal |
AAV |
Equal |
Equal |
Equal |
Team |
A’s |
Angels |
A’s |
(26) Gio Gonzalez (SP) – 1 Year $10 Million
Lower Fit |
Mean |
Upper Fit |
0.983886723 |
1.3205943 |
1.6573020 |
8697574 |
9979574 |
11261574 |
|
Matthew |
Matt |
Jeff |
Years |
Over |
Equal |
Over |
AAV |
Equal |
Equal |
Equal |
Team |
Angels |
Angels |
Angels |
(27) Anibal Sanchez (SP) – 2 Years $14.6 Million
Lower Fit |
Mean |
Upper Fit |
1.359840339 |
1.5628679 |
1.7658954 |
6544919 |
7316429 |
8087939 |
|
Matthew |
Matt |
Jeff |
Years |
Under |
Under |
Under |
AAV |
Over |
Over |
Over |
Team |
Tigers |
Braves |
Indians |
(28) Matt Harvey (SP) – 3 Years $29.3 Million
Lower Fit |
Mean |
Upper Fit |
2.240911431 |
2.5445714 |
2.8482314 |
8620427 |
9773170 |
10925913 |
|
Matthew |
Matt |
Jeff |
Years |
Under |
Under |
Under |
AAV |
Equal |
Equal |
Equal |
Team |
Reds |
Reds |
Reds |
(29) Trevor Cahill (SP) – 3 Years $29.1 Million
Lower Fit |
Mean |
Upper Fit |
2.533653345 |
2.7507598 |
2.9678662 |
8867293 |
9692671 |
10518050 |
|
Matthew |
Matt |
Jeff |
Years |
Under |
Under |
Equal |
AAV |
Equal |
Equal |
Equal |
Team |
Rangers |
Rangers |
Rangers |
(30) Daniel Murphy (2B) – 2 Years $14.1 Million
Lower Fit |
Mean |
Upper Fit |
1.665586496 |
2.1069841 |
2.5483818 |
5367460 |
7046562 |
8725664 |
|
Matthew |
Matt |
Jeff |
Years |
Equal |
Equal |
Equal |
AAV |
Over |
Equal |
Over |
Team |
Cubs |
Yankees |
Tigers |
(31) Brian Dozier (2B) – 3 Years $32.7 Million
Lower Fit |
Mean |
Upper Fit |
2.125845483 |
2.7082568 |
3.2906680 |
8691973 |
10906741 |
13121508 |
|
Matthew |
Matt |
Jeff |
Years |
Under |
Under |
Under |
AAV |
Equal |
Equal |
Under |
Team |
Angels |
Twins |
Twins |
(32) DJ LeMahieu (2B) – 3 Years $28.5 Million
Lower Fit |
Mean |
Upper Fit |
2.726766344 |
3.1040115 |
3.4812566 |
8063642 |
9497585 |
10931529 |
|
Matthew |
Matt |
Jeff |
Years |
Equal |
Equal |
Over |
AAV |
Equal |
Equal |
Equal |
Team |
Nationals |
Nationals |
Rays |
(33) Joakim Soria (RP) – 2 Years $11 Million
Lower Fit |
Mean |
Upper Fit |
1.380413341 |
1.7440298 |
2.1076464 |
4101876 |
5481515 |
6861154 |
|
Matthew |
Matt |
Jeff |
Years |
Equal |
Equal |
Equal |
AAV |
Over |
Equal |
Equal |
Team |
Mets |
Tigers |
Mets |
(34) Mike Moustakas (3B) – 1 Year $5.6 Million
Lower Fit |
Mean |
Upper Fit |
1.114288328 |
1.4345017 |
1.7547150 |
4352807 |
5570226 |
6787646 |
|
Matthew |
Matt |
Jeff |
Years |
Over |
Over |
Over |
AAV |
Over |
Over |
Over |
Team |
Royals |
Mets |
Royals |
(35) Lance Lynn (SP) – 2 Years $16.2 Million
Lower Fit |
Mean |
Upper Fit |
1.469719924 |
1.6869864 |
1.9042528 |
7255481 |
8081416 |
8907351 |
|
Matthew |
Matt |
Jeff |
Years |
Under |
Equal |
Equal |
AAV |
Equal |
Equal |
Equal |
Team |
Tigers |
Rays |
Tigers |
(36) Cody Allen (RP) – 3 Years $23.1 Million
Lower Fit |
Mean |
Upper Fit |
2.211085612 |
2.6390276 |
3.0669696 |
6058867 |
7687323 |
9315778 |
|
Matthew |
Matt |
Jeff |
Years |
Under |
Under |
Under |
AAV |
Equal |
Equal |
Equal |
Team |
Mets |
Braves |
Braves |
(37) Nick Markakis (OF) – 2 Years $19.7 Million
Lower Fit |
Mean |
Upper Fit |
1.900426353 |
2.2351635 |
2.5699007 |
8576101 |
9848273 |
11120445 |
|
Matthew |
Matt |
Jeff |
Years |
Equal |
Equal |
Equal |
AAV |
Over |
Equal |
Equal |
Team |
Rays |
A’s |
Rays |
(38) Derek Holland (SP) – 2 Years $15.6 Million
Lower Fit |
Mean |
Upper Fit |
1.405039034 |
2.0286941 |
2.6523492 |
5416445 |
7786986 |
10157527 |
|
Matthew |
Matt |
Jeff |
Years |
Equal |
Equal |
Equal |
AAV |
Equal |
Equal |
Under |
Team |
Twins |
Giants |
Giants |
(39) Bud Norris (RP) – 1 Year $2.3 Million
Lower Fit |
Mean |
Upper Fit |
1.083420682 |
1.1757939 |
1.2681671 |
1956879 |
2308155 |
2659430 |
|
Matthew |
Matt |
Jeff |
Years |
Equal |
Equal |
Equal |
AAV |
Under |
Equal |
Under |
Team |
A’s |
Brewers |
Brewers |
(40) Brad Brach (RP) – 2 Years $7.4 Million
Lower Fit |
Mean |
Upper Fit |
1.178680258 |
1.5035915 |
1.8285028 |
2473003 |
3708286 |
4943570 |
|
Matthew |
Matt |
Jeff |
Years |
Equal |
Equal |
Equal |
AAV |
Equal |
Equal |
Equal |
Team |
Indians |
Mets |
Indians |
(41) Wade Miley (SP) – 2 Years $17.1 Million
Lower Fit |
Mean |
Upper Fit |
2.073591122 |
2.3587055 |
2.6438199 |
7466190 |
8549470 |
9632749 |
|
Matthew |
Matt |
Jeff |
Years |
Equal |
Equal |
Equal |
AAV |
Equal |
Equal |
Under |
Team |
Brewers |
Brewers |
Brewers |
(42) Garrett Richards (SP) – 2 Years $12.4 Million
Lower Fit |
Mean |
Upper Fit |
1.514596795 |
1.8351126 |
2.1556284 |
4970803 |
6189043 |
7407283 |
|
Matthew |
Matt |
Jeff |
Years |
Equal |
Equal |
Equal |
AAV |
Equal |
Equal |
Equal |
Team |
Rays |
Rays |
Tigers |
(43) Jesse Chavez (RP) – 2 Years $10.8 Million
Lower Fit |
Mean |
Upper Fit |
1.312216603 |
1.5028121 |
1.6934075 |
4682060 |
5406450 |
6130841 |
|
Matthew |
Matt |
Jeff |
Years |
Equal |
Equal |
Equal |
AAV |
Equal |
Equal |
Equal |
Team |
Cubs |
Cubs |
Cubs |
(44) CC Sabathia (SP) 1 Year $7.4 Million (1 Year $8 Million, NYY)
Lower Fit |
Mean |
Upper Fit |
1.181864653 |
1.3958378 |
1.6098110 |
6589770 |
7402636 |
8215502 |
|
Matthew |
Matt |
Jeff |
Years |
Equal |
1 year |
Equal |
AAV |
Over |
$8 million |
Equal |
Team |
Yankees |
Yankees |
Yankees |
(45) Adam Jones (CF) 2 Years $15.8 Million
Lower Fit |
Mean |
Upper Fit |
2.036732298 |
2.4788224 |
2.9209125 |
6234059 |
7915334 |
9596609 |
|
Matthew |
Matt |
Jeff |
Years |
Under |
Equal |
Equal |
AAV |
Equal |
Equal |
Over |
Team |
Mariners |
Giants |
Mariners |
(46) Martin Maldonado (C) – 2 Years $6.1 Million
Lower Fit |
Mean |
Upper Fit |
1.379312996 |
1.5855119 |
1.7917109 |
2239418 |
3027890 |
3816363 |
|
Matthew |
Matt |
Jeff |
Years |
Equal |
Equal |
Equal |
AAV |
Over |
Over |
Over |
Team |
Astros |
Astros |
Astros |
(47) Kurt Suzuki (C) – 2 Years $10.3 Million
Lower Fit |
Mean |
Upper Fit |
1.418824560 |
1.6429214 |
1.8670183 |
4313896 |
5165962 |
6018029 |
|
Matthew |
Matt |
Jeff |
Years |
Equal |
Equal |
Equal |
AAV |
Equal |
Equal |
Equal |
Team |
Mets |
Dodgers |
Braves |
(48) Ervin Santana (SP) – 1 Year $4 Million
Lower Fit |
Mean |
Upper Fit |
0.508293794 |
0.7912704 |
1.0742470 |
2985997 |
4062195 |
5138394 |
|
Matthew |
Matt |
Jeff |
Years |
Equal |
Equal |
Equal |
AAV |
Equal |
Equal |
Equal |
Team |
Orioles |
Tigers |
Orioles |
(49) Drew Pomeranz (SP) – 1 Year $5.3 Million
Lower Fit |
Mean |
Upper Fit |
0.978565639 |
1.2244386 |
1.4703115 |
4379744 |
5313864 |
6247985 |
|
Matthew |
Matt |
Jeff |
Years |
Equal |
Equal |
Equal |
AAV |
Under |
Equal |
Under |
Team |
Giants |
Royals |
Orioles |
(50) Tyson Ross (SP) – 2 Years $15.4 Million
Lower Fit |
Mean |
Upper Fit |
2.170592448 |
2.3553112 |
2.5400299 |
7015453 |
7717625 |
8419797 |
|
Matthew |
Matt |
Jeff |
Years |
Equal |
Equal |
Equal |
AAV |
Equal |
Equal |
Equal |
Team |
White Sox |
Padres |
Padres |
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