2018-2019 Top 50 Free Agents

by: Matthew de Marte, Matt Carlin, and Jeff Adams – November 9th, 2018

Major League Baseball’s 2018 Free Agent class has been looked at for years as potentially the best in baseball history. Although, age, injuries, and decreased performance have taken away some of the luster surrounding this crop of free agents, there are still a plethora of quality players free to sign with whomever they choose (So long as they are offered a contract!). If you have already read our pieces regarding Bryce Harper and Manny Machado’s free agency, you already understand the SOTG analytics team created their own free agent projections system. Using data from the 2014-2018 free agent classes, we used variables pertaining to position, production, time spent on the field, among others to predict a player’s value on the open market. In this piece, SOTG will look at the top 50 free agents (according to MLB Trade Rumors), with their projected contracts in terms of years and money. The lower and upper fit (Years and AAV) based on each prediction’s confidence interval are also shown with each player’s projections. For each player, Jeff, Matt, and I will give our opinions whether we think the contract projection is fair, under or overvalued, and predict which team the player will sign with. Note these contracts are projected from per mathematical computation based on years past in free agency, so not every possible variable is taken into account in these projections, but as a team we were happy with how they came out! Without further-ado, let’s take a look at the top 50 free agents (Not including Yusei Kikuchi, whom the Seibu Lions of the NPB is expected to post him) and what SOTG has them projected to make!

(1) Bryce Harper (RF) – 10 Years $360 Million

Lower Fit Mean Upper Fit
8.976385859 9.7033471 10.4303084
33204967 35967657 38730347

 

Matthew Matt Jeff
Years Equal Over Under
AAV Under Under Under
Team Yankees Phillies Nationals

(2) Manny Machado (SS) – 9 Years $301 Million

Lower Fit Mean Upper Fit
8.363271708 9.0909404 9.8186090
30703624 33468940 36234256

 

Matthew Matt Jeff
Years Over Under Under
AAV Under Under Under
Team Phillies Braves Phillies

(3) Patrick Corbin (SP) – 6 Years $138.8 Million

Lower Fit Mean Upper Fit
5.635992886 6.1032535 6.5705141
21353388 23130092 24906796

 

Matthew Matt Jeff
Years Under Under Under
AAV Under Equal Equal
Team Yankees Yankees Nationals

(4) Dallas Keuchel (SP) – 5 Years $ 114.4 Million

Lower Fit Mean Upper Fit
4.692996534 5.0591168 5.4252371
21480658 22872233 24263809

 

Matthew Matt Jeff
Years Under Equal Equal
AAV Under Under Under
Team Angels Braves Angels

(5) Craig Kimbrel (RP) – 5 Years $78.6 Million

Lower Fit Mean Upper Fit
4.744428036 5.3600363 5.9756446
13371127 15710472 18049818

 

Matthew Matt Jeff
Years Equal Equal Equal
AAV Equal Equal Equal
Team Braves Red Sox Braves

(6) Yasmani Grandal (C) – 5 Years $76.5 Million

Lower Fit Mean Upper Fit
4.299959211 4.6276595 4.9553598
14057673 15304002 16550331

 

Matthew Matt Jeff
Years Under Under Equal
AAV Equal Equal Under
Team Red Sox Phillies Phillies

(7) Nathan Eovaldi (SP) – 4 Years $52.7 Million

Lower Fit Mean Upper Fit
3.702336173 3.9746355 4.2469349
12147381 13182626 14217871

 

Matthew Matt Jeff
Years Equal Equal Equal
AAV Equal Equal Over
Team Red Sox Red Sox Red Sox

(8) A.J. Pollock (CF) – 4 Years $56.4 Million

Lower Fit Mean Upper Fit
3.429058902 3.9138214 4.3985839
12259016 14101828 15944640

 

Matthew Matt Jeff
Years Equal Over Equal
AAV Equal Equal Equal
Team White Sox Dbacks Dbacks

(9) J.A. Happ (SP) – 3 Years $42.2 Million

Lower Fit Mean Upper Fit
2.300808513 2.5393763 2.7779441
13151453 14058902 14966352

 

Matthew Matt Jeff
Years Equal Equal Equal
AAV Equal Equal Equal
Team Angels Yankees Yankees

(10) Michael Brantley (OF) – 4 Years $58.7 Million

Lower Fit Mean Upper Fit
3.672566557 4.0162662 4.3599659
13365573 14671372 15977170

 

Matthew Matt Jeff
Years Under Under Equal
AAV Equal Equal Equal
Team Giants Indians Indians

(11) Andrew McCutchen (LF) – 3 Years $50.3 Million

Lower Fit Mean Upper Fit
2.697041072 3.2551476 3.8132541
14651813 16774113 18896412

 

Matthew Matt Jeff
Years Equal Equal Equal
AAV Under Under Under
Team Phillies Mariners Mariners

(12) Josh Donaldson (3B) – 4 Years $80.5 Million

Lower Fit Mean Upper Fit
3.401985811 4.1366304 4.8712749
17337868 20131560 22925251

 

Matthew Matt Jeff
Years Under Equal Equal
AAV Equal Under Equal
Team Cardinals Cardinals Cardinals

(13) Charlie Morton (SP) – 4 Years $65.1 Million

Lower Fit Mean Upper Fit
3.653989908 3.8990439 4.1440979
15334543 16266088 17197633

 

Matthew Matt Jeff
Years Under Under Under
AAV Over Over Equal
Team Cubs Astros Astros

(14) Wilson Ramos (C) – 4 Years $46.3 Million

Lower Fit Mean Upper Fit
3.628922805 3.8869746 4.1450264
10595953 11574950 12553946

 

Matthew Matt Jeff
Years Under Equal Equal
AAV Equal Over Equal
Team Nationals Nationals Nationals

(15) Marwin Gonzalez (UTIL) – 4 Years $50.9 Million

Lower Fit Mean Upper Fit
3.597727604 3.9816552 4.3655829
11264902 12729258 14193615

 

Matthew Matt Jeff
Years Equal Equal Equal
AAV Equal Equal Equal
Team Astros Astros Astros

(16) Jeurys Familia (RP) – 4 Years $52.5 Million

Lower Fit Mean Upper Fit
3.508059731 3.9989498 4.4898399
11256767 13122246 14987725

 

Matthew Matt Jeff
Years Under Under Under
AAV Under Under Under
Team Phillies Astros Phillies

(17) Zach Britton (RP) – 3 Years $32.6 Million

Lower Fit Mean Upper Fit
2.773072685 3.2920997 3.8111267
8900831 10873249 12845668

 

Matthew Matt Jeff
Years Equal Equal Equal
AAV Over Over Equal
Team Yankees Yankees Yankees

(18) David Robertson (RP) – 4 Years $49.2 Million

Lower Fit Mean Upper Fit
3.638126511 4.0329037 4.4276809
10812545 12311212 13809880

 

Matthew Matt Jeff
Years Under Under Under
AAV Equal Equal Under
Team Yankees A’s Yankees

(19) Hyun-Jin Ryu (SP) – 4 Years $51.8 Million

Lower Fit Mean Upper Fit
3.551566286 3.8383412 4.1251161
11856836 12947687 14038537

 

Matthew Matt Jeff
Years Under Equal Under
AAV Over Equal Equal
Team Dodgers Dodgers Dodgers

(20) Adam Ottavino (RP) – 5 Years $59.3 Million

Lower Fit Mean Upper Fit
4.095781462 4.5557648 5.0157482
10115949 11865695 13615441

 

Matthew Matt Jeff
Years Under Under Under
AAV Over Over Equal
Team Dodgers Cardinals Cubs

(21) Nelson Cruz (DH) – 2 Years $24.4 Million

Lower Fit Mean Upper Fit
1.472623905 1.9341506 2.3956772
10449591 12204111 13958631

 

Matthew Matt Jeff
Years Equal Equal Equal
AAV Over Equal Over
Team Astros Rays Rays

(22) Jed Lowrie (2B) – 3 Years $37.4 Million

Lower Fit Mean Upper Fit
3.115799559 3.4801001 3.8444006
11068531 12450036 13831541

 

Matthew Matt Jeff
Years Equal Equal Equal
AAV Equal Equal Equal
Team A’s A’s A’s

(23) Andrew Miller (RP) – 3 Years $33 Million

Lower Fit Mean Upper Fit
2.403080081 3.0176197 3.6321593
8675276 11013294 13351312

 

Matthew Matt Jeff
Years Equal Equal Equal
AAV Equal Equal Equal
Team Yankees Red Sox Cardinals

(24) Joe Kelly (RP) – 3 Years $21.1 Million

Lower Fit Mean Upper Fit
2.664624264 2.8980095 3.1313948
6154299 7041701 7929103

 

Matthew Matt Jeff
Years Equal Equal Equal
AAV Equal Equal Equal
Team Red Sox Dodgers Red Sox

(25) Kelvin Herrera (RP) – 2 Years $14.5 Million

Lower Fit Mean Upper Fit
1.805375477 2.2592456 2.7131158
5516890 7241993 8967096

 

Matthew Matt Jeff
Years Equal Equal Equal
AAV Equal Equal Equal
Team A’s Angels A’s

(26) Gio Gonzalez (SP) – 1 Year $10 Million

Lower Fit Mean Upper Fit
0.983886723 1.3205943 1.6573020
8697574 9979574 11261574

 

Matthew Matt Jeff
Years Over Equal Over
AAV Equal Equal Equal
Team Angels Angels Angels

(27) Anibal Sanchez (SP) – 2 Years $14.6 Million

Lower Fit Mean Upper Fit
1.359840339 1.5628679 1.7658954
6544919 7316429 8087939

 

Matthew Matt Jeff
Years Under Under Under
AAV Over Over Over
Team Tigers Braves Indians

(28) Matt Harvey (SP) – 3 Years $29.3 Million

Lower Fit Mean Upper Fit
2.240911431 2.5445714 2.8482314
8620427 9773170 10925913

 

Matthew Matt Jeff
Years Under Under Under
AAV Equal Equal Equal
Team Reds Reds Reds

(29) Trevor Cahill (SP) – 3 Years $29.1 Million

Lower Fit Mean Upper Fit
2.533653345 2.7507598 2.9678662
8867293 9692671 10518050

 

Matthew Matt Jeff
Years Under Under Equal
AAV Equal Equal Equal
Team Rangers Rangers Rangers

(30) Daniel Murphy (2B) – 2 Years $14.1 Million

Lower Fit Mean Upper Fit
1.665586496 2.1069841 2.5483818
5367460 7046562 8725664

 

Matthew Matt Jeff
Years Equal Equal Equal
AAV Over Equal Over
Team Cubs Yankees Tigers

(31) Brian Dozier (2B) – 3 Years $32.7 Million

Lower Fit Mean Upper Fit
2.125845483 2.7082568 3.2906680
8691973 10906741 13121508

 

Matthew Matt Jeff
Years Under Under Under
AAV Equal Equal Under
Team Angels Twins Twins

(32) DJ LeMahieu (2B) – 3 Years $28.5 Million

Lower Fit Mean Upper Fit
2.726766344 3.1040115 3.4812566
8063642 9497585 10931529

 

Matthew Matt Jeff
Years Equal Equal Over
AAV Equal Equal Equal
Team Nationals Nationals Rays

(33) Joakim Soria (RP) – 2 Years $11 Million

Lower Fit Mean Upper Fit
1.380413341 1.7440298 2.1076464
4101876 5481515 6861154

 

Matthew Matt Jeff
Years Equal Equal Equal
AAV Over Equal Equal
Team Mets Tigers Mets

(34) Mike Moustakas (3B) – 1 Year $5.6 Million

Lower Fit Mean Upper Fit
1.114288328 1.4345017 1.7547150
4352807 5570226 6787646

 

Matthew Matt Jeff
Years Over Over Over
AAV Over Over Over
Team Royals Mets Royals

(35) Lance Lynn (SP) – 2 Years $16.2 Million

Lower Fit Mean Upper Fit
1.469719924 1.6869864 1.9042528
7255481 8081416 8907351

 

Matthew Matt Jeff
Years Under Equal Equal
AAV Equal Equal Equal
Team Tigers Rays Tigers

(36) Cody Allen (RP) – 3 Years $23.1 Million

Lower Fit Mean Upper Fit
2.211085612 2.6390276 3.0669696
6058867 7687323 9315778

 

Matthew Matt Jeff
Years Under Under Under
AAV Equal Equal Equal
Team Mets Braves Braves

(37) Nick Markakis (OF) – 2 Years $19.7 Million

Lower Fit Mean Upper Fit
1.900426353 2.2351635 2.5699007
8576101 9848273 11120445

 

Matthew Matt Jeff
Years Equal Equal Equal
AAV Over Equal Equal
Team Rays A’s Rays

(38) Derek Holland (SP) – 2 Years $15.6 Million

Lower Fit Mean Upper Fit
1.405039034 2.0286941 2.6523492
5416445 7786986 10157527

 

Matthew Matt Jeff
Years Equal Equal Equal
AAV Equal Equal Under
Team Twins Giants Giants

(39) Bud Norris (RP) – 1 Year $2.3 Million

Lower Fit Mean Upper Fit
1.083420682 1.1757939 1.2681671
1956879 2308155 2659430

 

Matthew Matt Jeff
Years Equal Equal Equal
AAV Under Equal Under
Team A’s Brewers Brewers

(40) Brad Brach (RP) – 2 Years $7.4 Million

Lower Fit Mean Upper Fit
1.178680258 1.5035915 1.8285028
2473003 3708286 4943570

 

Matthew Matt Jeff
Years Equal Equal Equal
AAV Equal Equal Equal
Team Indians Mets Indians

(41) Wade Miley (SP) – 2 Years $17.1 Million

Lower Fit Mean Upper Fit
2.073591122 2.3587055 2.6438199
7466190 8549470 9632749

 

Matthew Matt Jeff
Years Equal Equal Equal
AAV Equal Equal Under
Team Brewers Brewers Brewers

(42) Garrett Richards (SP) – 2 Years $12.4 Million

Lower Fit Mean Upper Fit
1.514596795 1.8351126 2.1556284
4970803 6189043 7407283

 

Matthew Matt Jeff
Years Equal Equal Equal
AAV Equal Equal Equal
Team Rays Rays Tigers

(43) Jesse Chavez (RP) – 2 Years $10.8 Million

Lower Fit Mean Upper Fit
1.312216603 1.5028121 1.6934075
4682060 5406450 6130841

 

Matthew Matt Jeff
Years Equal Equal Equal
AAV Equal Equal Equal
Team Cubs Cubs Cubs

(44) CC Sabathia (SP) 1 Year $7.4 Million (1 Year $8 Million, NYY)

 

Lower Fit Mean Upper Fit
1.181864653 1.3958378 1.6098110
6589770 7402636 8215502

 

Matthew Matt Jeff
Years Equal 1 year Equal
AAV Over $8 million Equal
Team Yankees Yankees Yankees

(45) Adam Jones (CF) 2 Years $15.8 Million

 

Lower Fit Mean Upper Fit
2.036732298 2.4788224 2.9209125
6234059 7915334 9596609

 

Matthew Matt Jeff
Years Under Equal Equal
AAV Equal Equal Over
Team Mariners Giants Mariners

(46) Martin Maldonado (C) – 2 Years $6.1 Million

Lower Fit Mean Upper Fit
1.379312996 1.5855119 1.7917109
2239418 3027890 3816363

 

Matthew Matt Jeff
Years Equal Equal Equal
AAV Over Over Over
Team Astros Astros Astros

(47) Kurt Suzuki (C) – 2 Years $10.3 Million

Lower Fit Mean Upper Fit
1.418824560 1.6429214 1.8670183
4313896 5165962 6018029

 

Matthew Matt Jeff
Years Equal Equal Equal
AAV Equal Equal Equal
Team Mets Dodgers Braves

(48) Ervin Santana (SP) – 1 Year $4 Million

Lower Fit Mean Upper Fit
0.508293794 0.7912704 1.0742470
2985997 4062195 5138394

 

Matthew Matt Jeff
Years Equal Equal Equal
AAV Equal Equal Equal
Team Orioles Tigers Orioles

(49) Drew Pomeranz (SP) – 1 Year $5.3 Million

Lower Fit Mean Upper Fit
0.978565639 1.2244386 1.4703115
4379744 5313864 6247985

 

Matthew Matt Jeff
Years Equal Equal Equal
AAV Under Equal Under
Team Giants Royals Orioles

(50) Tyson Ross (SP) – 2 Years $15.4 Million

Lower Fit Mean Upper Fit
2.170592448 2.3553112 2.5400299
7015453 7717625 8419797

 

Matthew Matt Jeff
Years Equal Equal Equal
AAV Equal Equal Equal
Team White Sox Padres Padres

 

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